The 2026 FIFA World Cup is proving to be a landmark event for prediction markets, driving record-breaking trading volumes across major platforms as millions of users speculate on match outcomes and tournament winners. Once largely associated with politics and macroeconomic events, prediction markets have become a major destination for sports forecasting, with the World Cup generating unprecedented levels of activity.
Leading platforms including Polymarket, Kalshi, and newcomer Rothera all reported sharp increases in trading during June. For users looking to compare market sentiment across multiple platforms, FIFA World Cup predictions from WagerBeasts aggregate forecasts from leading prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi, providing a broader view of consensus odds throughout the tournament.
World Cup Sparks Record Trading Activity
The 2026 FIFA World Cup was widely expected to become the biggest gambling event in history, and the early numbers suggest it has lived up to those expectations.
Kalshi generated more than $31 billion in notional trading volume during June, representing an increase of over 70% from May’s $17.9 billion. Since the tournament kicked off on June 11, the platform has consistently processed more than $1 billion in daily trading volume, highlighting sustained engagement rather than a brief surge of activity.
Polymarket also enjoyed its strongest month on record. Its international platform recorded more than $10.8 billion in monthly trading volume, reversing declines seen during April and May. Meanwhile, the company’s U.S. platform generated over $3.5 billion in notional volume during June, almost doubling May’s total of $1.77 billion.
The boom extended beyond established players. Rothera, the event contract exchange backed by Susquehanna International Group and integrated with Robinhood, launched in June and quickly attracted more than $2 billion in trading volume. According to Bank of America, the platform already accounts for roughly 7% of the U.S. prediction market.
Sports and Crypto Continue to Fuel Prediction Market Growth
The World Cup has become the industry’s biggest catalyst, but sports are only one part of the broader prediction market ecosystem. Alongside football markets, users actively trade contracts covering elections, interest rates, inflation data, AI developments, and cryptocurrency events.
Polymarket, in particular, has become one of the leading destinations for blockchain-related prediction markets, offering contracts on Bitcoin price milestones, ETF approvals, protocol upgrades, and other major crypto developments. Investors looking for model-based crypto predictions can compare quantitative price forecasts with the probability-based expectations reflected in prediction markets, providing another perspective on where digital assets could be headed.
The combination of sports and crypto has significantly expanded the industry’s appeal, attracting both traditional bettors and investors seeking alternative ways to express market views.
Team USA Markets Draw Heavy Interest
Among the most actively traded contracts are those tied to Team USA’s World Cup campaign.
Ahead of the United States’ Round of 16 clash against Belgium, more than $64 million had been traded on Kalshi and over $122 million on Polymarket regarding whether the U.S. would go on to win the tournament. Despite the enormous trading activity, implied probabilities remained relatively modest, with Kalshi assigning roughly a 4.3% chance and Polymarket around 3%.
Platforms have also introduced promotional campaigns to capitalize on World Cup excitement. Polymarket launched a competition offering up to $2 million to anyone who correctly predicts every knockout-stage match, while Kalshi prominently promoted World Cup trading through its mobile app.
A Major Test for the Prediction Market Industry
The World Cup is also serving as an important stress test for prediction market infrastructure. Open interest, representing the total value of active contracts, has climbed sharply during the tournament. Kalshi’s open interest has now exceeded $1 billion, while Polymarket’s international platform remains close to $400 million, indicating that participants continue to hold substantial positions throughout the competition.
Industry observers believe this period will be closely watched by regulators, institutional investors, and market participants evaluating the long-term viability of event contracts.
According to Solidus Labs CEO Asaf Meir, the tournament represents an opportunity for prediction markets to demonstrate that they can operate efficiently during periods of sustained, high-volume activity while maintaining fair and orderly markets.
If platforms continue to perform smoothly throughout the knockout rounds and final, the World Cup could strengthen confidence in prediction markets as a growing segment of the broader financial ecosystem.