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The analyst believes that BlackRock has a 50% chance of Bitcoin spot ETF approval

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By , Updated On June 29, 2023

According to Bloomberg’s ETF analyst, Grayscale’s case against the Securities and Exchange Commission appears more likely to succeed.

ETF analyst Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg believes BlackRock’s Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) has a 50% chance of approval.

In a recent Bloomberg Intelligence article, Elliott Stein, a senior litigation analyst, observed Balchunas’ prediction. According to Stein, Grayscale now has a 70% chance of winning its suit against the SEC.

By allowing an ETF from a “trusted ‘adult’ TradeFi firm rather than Grayscale, the SEC might favor BlackRock’s ETF filing favorably.

Since June 2022, Grayscale has been engaging in back-and-forth legal filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission since it appealed its rejection. The appeals court heard oral testimony on March 7 from three federal appeals court judges.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has a 70% chance of succeeding in its lawsuit against the SEC over its conversion to a Bitcoin ETF.

After concluding Grayscale’s oral arguments, Stein said its odds increased to 50% from 40%. Upon reviewing the panel’s lines of questioning, Stein said that “all three judges appeared to have sided with Grayscale.” According to Stein, it is expected that Bloomberg will reach an agreement by August.

Many Bitcoin ETF applications have recently been recent, with Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdom Tree and Valkyrie joining BlackRock as asset managers seeking SEC approval.

Digital assets would be exposed to firms with combined asset management under management of $27 trillion if JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon, and Bank of America were eventually approved for similar services.

GBTC, which has risen over 134% since May 13, 2022, to $19.47 in 2023, has soared over 134% since Grayscale’s appeal is awaiting a decision. In accordance with Google Finance, this is what I found.

Furthermore, according to YCharts, GBTC’s share prices are trading at the lowest discount to its total net-asset value since September 12 last year – 31%. Investors’ confidence in the product may improve with a lower trust discount rate.

A year ago, GBTC was valued at $56.70, peaking at over 55%.